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Designing CogCards — a card game that reads risk appetite

A novel, game-based cognitive assessment built to guide hiring and improve investment performance — taken from inception to deployment.

Role
End-to-end ownership
Stakeholders
CIO, Human Capital, Portfolio Managers
Timeline
5 months, research → deployment
Overview

An assessment hiding inside a game

CogCards is an online, game-based cognitive assessment that measures risk appetite to guide hiring decisions and improve investment team performance. Instead of a personality test, candidates play a card-based gambling game — their decisions become the data.

The Problem

Risk-taking was a blind spot

Stakeholders agreed that current risk-taking among the investment team was suboptimal — but had no reliable way to assess risk appetite in current or prospective hires. Better risk-taking, the thesis went, meant better investment skill.

Project goal

Build a tool to assess risk appetite for current and prospective employees that's easy to deploy at scale, and engaging enough that people actually want to take it.

Research questions

Can we identify behavioral patterns that impact investment performance — and what methodology, validated rigorously, can deliver that quickly with limited engineering resources?

Process

Four stages, one suit each

Month 1

Research & Planning

Competitive analysis found no real precedent — just personality tests and talk-throughs. Behavioral science pointed toward a behavioral task plus a brief self-report survey.

Months 2–3

Development & Iteration

Built and piloted a game prototype and results dashboard, cycling through stakeholder feedback and analysis between rounds.

Month 4

Deployment

Shipped the final platform (JavaScript + Claude Code) with a Python results dashboard, live with candidates and current analysts.

Month 5+

Analysis & Refinement

Validated the measurement framework internally and externally, then mined behavioral insights from the results.

Methodology

Behavior, self-report, and a dashboard

Behavioral

A card-based gambling game where players try to win as much money as possible — decision-making reveals risk-taking directly.

Survey

Closed- and open-ended questions to triangulate against behavioral data and surface qualitative insight.

Deliverables

A polished game platform plus a dashboard surfacing player results for hiring teams.

Key Findings

Overconfidence was hiding in plain sight

Validating the framework internally (behavioral × self-report) and externally (against portfolio metrics and personality tests) surfaced a consistent pattern: the team's worst performers overestimated their own performance, while the best performers underestimated theirs.

“If I lost several card draws in a row, I would keep hitting that deck because I knew a win would be coming…”
Behavioral

The current investment team was missing a key range of risk appetite scores entirely.

Self-report

An unexpectedly high rate of cognitive biases, including gambler's fallacy.

Combined

Clear evidence of a Dunning-Kruger effect — overconfidence concentrated among weaker performers.

Qualitative

Open-ended responses (analyzed with Claude) surfaced recurring player archetypes.

Recommendations & Impact

From insight to measurable change

+6%
Improvement in risk appetite scores, comparing the six months before deployment to the six months after — the first quantitative signal the tool was changing behavior, not just measuring it.
Reflections & Next Steps

What I'd carry into the next project

Behavioral + self-report measures, externally validated against portfolio metrics, gave a framework that could survive scrutiny — and leaning on LLMs for prototyping and qualitative analysis let a single owner ship something this rigorous in five months.

Some findings have been generalized or omitted, and all visuals are mockups, to preserve confidentiality. They remain faithful to the original results and content.